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Bolivia's Political Situation

Austerity, protests and the fragile post-MAS order.

South AmericaUpdated November 11, 2026

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Current Situation

Updated November 11, 2026

A year into Rodrigo Paz's presidency, the government has begun testing the limits of its own programme rather than defending them. The 2027 budget it sent to the Assembly on 30 October exceeds the IMF deficit ceiling by Bs1.79 billion and funds the gasoline subsidy the programme requires it to end in January 2027. In the courts, Supreme Court president Romer Saucedo left the country on 4 November ahead of a drug-trafficking arrest warrant, carrying the purge that began with the attorney general into the highest court. The urban teachers' 48-hour national strike on 9–10 November re-opened the street front that had been quiet since October, while Evo Morales cancelled his march on La Paz for a third time, leaving organised protest without a national campaign.

The open question

Will the Assembly trim the 2027 budget to the IMF's deficit ceiling, or is the programme's fiscal anchor already slipping?

What to watch for

  • By 30 November

    Assembly debate and vote on the 2027 budget

    The bill must be cut by Bs1.79bn to meet the IMF ceiling, and it keeps Bs11bn of gasoline subsidy

  • November

    Whether the urban teachers extend their strike

    Two days shut schools nationwide and the decentralization bill is still before the Assembly

  • November–December

    Saucedo case and the Supreme Court's interim leadership

    An arrest warrant against the court's president tests whether the justice purge produces cases or only exile claims

  • November–December

    Forensic examination of the Cerimedo recordings

    Prosecutors rejected the first complaint; verification decides whether the audio carries legal weight

  • December

    Gasoline and GNV subsidy decision

    The programme schedules elimination for January 2027 and the budget funds it anyway

  • December

    El Niño emergency spending

    Drought relief adds to a deficit already above the ceiling

Overview

This topic tracks Bolivia's political crisis under President Rodrigo Paz, from the collapse of the MAS party and the 2025 election through the fuel-subsidy shock, the blockade wave and the IMF programme that followed.

The through-line is a government with a weak electoral mandate trying to stabilise an economy short of dollars, fuel and gas revenue. Paz has governed through decrees, a state of exception and an unstable centre-right coalition, while Evo Morales remains a fugitive opposition figure and the MAS vote has fragmented.

Coverage also follows the external alignments shaping the crisis: US security and financial support, Chinese and Russian lithium contracts, the regional rightward shift, and Bolivia's place in a contest over critical minerals and hemispheric influence.

Updates

What changed, most recent first.

Latest update

November 11, 2026

Permalink

  1. Paz's first budget breaks the IMF deficit ceiling

    The 2027 budget sent to the Assembly on 30 October projects a 6.7% of GDP deficit, Bs1.79bn above the Bs36.8bn ceiling the IMF memorandum sets, and funds Bs11bn of gasoline and GNV subsidy the programme requires to end in January 2027. (Correo del Sur)

  2. The Supreme Court president flees a drug warrant

    Romer Saucedo left Bolivia on 4 November after prosecutors issued an arrest warrant for drug trafficking and criminal organisation the day before; the court named Rosmery Ruiz interim president, treating his absence after six days as abandonment of office. (Infobae)

  3. Teachers shut schools nationwide for two days

    All 31 urban federations struck on 9–10 November against transferring technical institutes to departmental governments, combining marches with hunger-strike pickets; police tear-gassed the La Paz march on the second day. (Los Tiempos, teleSUR)

  4. The Cerimedo audio scandal reaches the first lady

    Prosecutors rejected a complaint against María Elena Urquidi and Public Works Minister Mauricio Zamora over at least 15 leaked recordings attributed to Fernando Cerimedo, which fact-checkers have validated but forensics have not. (Infobae)

  5. Morales cancels his march a third time

    The evista column due to leave Patacamaya on 6 November did not start; organisers blamed police and military deployments in the town and said they would switch tactics, leaving no scheduled march on La Paz. (ANF)

  6. Paz's first year closes at 32% approval

    The presidency's own balance reports monthly gasoline output up from 61m to 113m litres and diesel from 16m to 39m after the subsidy cut, and ministries cut from 21 to 12, while Ipsos Ciesmori records 32% approval and 55% disapproval. (Latin Times)

Earlier updates

November 4, 2026Chile-Bolivia reset · 4 more items

  1. Chile-Bolivia reset

    Kast made the first Chilean presidential visit in 71 years, with ties to be normalised.

  2. Lula wins Brazil

    The runoff denied the regional right its biggest prize.

  3. Labour front fragments

    The COB refused a general strike while teachers struck alone.

  4. Economy splits from optics

    The IMF projects a 3% contraction even as reserves are expected to rise.

  5. El Niño emergency

    A nationwide drought emergency stacked onto the political one.

Open this update
October 14, 2026Third legal front against Morales · 4 more items

  1. Third legal front against Morales

    Prosecutors opened an investigation into the 2009 Las Américas hotel killings.

  2. Evista march postponed

    The 13 October march slipped to 16-19 October.

  3. Justice purge widens

    A La Paz coordinating prosecutor was arrested in the Mariaca case.

  4. Santa Cruz deadline passes quietly

    The 10 October ultimatum produced street pressure, not blockades.

  5. Shield of the Americas tested

    Troops deployed preventively at strategic routes.

Open this update

Quarterly articles

Longer analysis, once a quarter.

Q3 2026 · 5 min read

The decree is the government

Between July and September 2026, Rodrigo Paz held Bolivia together with emergency powers and an IMF deal while his coalition, his currency and his authority steadily eroded.

Sep 30, 2026

Actors

4 actors

Evo Morales

Former President of Bolivia; leader of the Movement for Socialism

Former president of Bolivia (2006–2019) and leader of MAS, now a fugitive in Chapare facing multiple arrest warrants.

Jorge Quiroga

Former President of Bolivia

Former president of Bolivia (2001–2002) and the conservative candidate defeated by Rodrigo Paz in the 2025 runoff.

Movement for Socialism (MAS)

Political party

Bolivia's dominant socialist party from 2006 to 2025, now reduced to a handful of seats after internal fragmentation.

Rodrigo Paz

President of Bolivia (since November 2025)

President of Bolivia since November 2025, governing a fragile centre-right coalition through an economic crisis and an IMF programme.

Explainers

3 explainers

Bolivia's Lithium Geopolitics

Bolivia's vast but underdeveloped lithium reserves and the competition among Chinese, Russian and Western firms to exploit them.

Bolivia's Post-MAS Fragmentation

The fractured landscape after MAS's collapse, where Paz's coalition lacks institutional roots and protests cut across the old left-right divide.

South America's Rightward Shift

The region-wide turn toward conservative and strongman governments, and where Bolivia fits in it.

Timeline

How we got here, newest first.

2026

  1. November

    • Paz declares a nationwide El Niño emergency on 31 October as drought affects more than 78,000 families.
    • Paz travels to Madrid for the Ibero-American Summit to court European investment.
    • Morales-aligned groups plan a march from Patacamaya to La Paz starting 6 November (planned).

  2. October

    • Attorney General Roger Mariaca is arrested at Santa Cruz airport on 1 October; the purge of the justice system widens.
    • The IMF Board approves the $1.9 billion facility on 2 October, releasing $214 million immediately; Moody's upgrades Bolivia to Caa2.
    • The diesel price rise triggers the "dieselazo"; the Jach'a Karangas indigenous nation declares a permanent emergency.
    • The COB declares a state of emergency on 15 October but declines to call a general strike.
    • Chilean President José Antonio Kast makes the first Chilean state visit to Bolivia in 71 years; both sides pledge to normalise relations.
    • ECLAC projects 0.2% growth for 2026 against the IMF's -3.0% forecast.
    • Morales tells the Evo Pueblo congress that "at any moment armed struggle can return," while saying he does not advocate it.
    • Lula defeats Flávio Bolsonaro in Brazil's runoff, halting the regional rightward wave's biggest prize.
    • Police seize dynamite and firearms in Quillacollo and allege a Morales-linked plot for November protests.

Key Sources

The outlets we check first.